New revision from the IMF on Turkey's 2026 growth and inflation forecasts
In its October 2026 report, the International Monetary Fund revised Turkey's growth rate downwards while increasing its inflation expectations.
The International Monetary Fund revised Turkey's 2026 economic growth forecast downwards while upwardly revising its inflation expectations in its October 2026 Regional Economic Outlook for Europe report.
Change in Growth Forecasts
The International Monetary Fund lowered Turkey's economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.7 percentage points compared to its April projections, bringing it down to 2.7 percent.
The Fund increased the growth forecast for 2027 by 0.1 percentage points to 3.6 percent, and raised the 2028 forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 4 percent.
Rising Inflation Expectations
While inflation forecasts prepared for Turkey were revised upward compared to previous projections, it was anticipated that annual rates would show a downward trend.
Accordingly, annual inflation is expected to reach 31.2 percent in 2026, 26.5 percent in 2027, and 20.6 percent in 2028.
The IMF increased its inflation forecasts upward by 2.6 percentage points for 2026, 5.1 percentage points for 2027, and 3.6 percentage points for 2028.
European Economic Outlook
The report emphasized that the European economy continues to grow despite successive shocks, though the overall growth rate remains low.
It was stated that high energy prices, geopolitical risks, tariffs, drought, and rising bond yields are weighing on the economic outlook.
Country-Specific Differences
Within the scope of developments across Europe, Germany's growth forecast was raised, whereas France's growth forecast was lowered.
Call for Reform and Innovation
The International Monetary Fund called on European economies to undertake innovation and structural reforms in order to overcome current economic challenges.