Oil Supply Warning from Morgan Stanley and Production Cut Expectations

Morgan Stanley reported that there could be disruptions in global oil supply due to maintenance work to be carried out in refineries. The bank stated that production cuts resulting from maintenance could reach 2.5 times normal levels and that this tightness could last until 2027.

Morgan Stanley analysts drew attention to an unusually large increase in refinery maintenance activities. According to the bank's report, supply issues in petroleum products are expected to persist even after war-induced supply bottlenecks come to an end.

It is projected that production cuts due to scheduled maintenance in refineries worldwide will increase by 3.4 million barrels per day until the second quarter of 2027. Emphasizing that this increase corresponds to 2.5 times normal levels, analysts stated that these scheduled maintenance cuts will be larger than the current production reductions of refineries in the Middle East and Russia.