Super El Nino Breaks Sea Temperature Record Weeks Before Expected Peak

Breaking sea surface temperature records weeks before its expected December peak, the super El Nino event is causing droughts and floods globally while raising concerns about food security.

Global Impacts and Expected Timeline

While the most widespread impacts are expected later this year and into 2027, the effects of El Nino are already beginning to be felt in different regions of the world.

The strength of an El Nino event does not directly determine the scale of impacts at any given location, and regional impacts can vary significantly from one event to another.

Past Similar Super Events

During the 1997-1998 event, severe drought in southeast Asia contributed to forest fires, while East Africa faced devastating floods.

A similar pattern developed during the 2015-2016 El Nino, with drought and fires seen in southeast Asia while southern Africa experienced one of its worst droughts in decades.

Tropical Cyclone Activity is Changing

Strong El Nino events generally suppress Atlantic hurricanes while increasing activity in parts of the Pacific, a pattern that has also been observed throughout 2026.

The World Meteorological Organization states that disruptions caused by drought and floods have been reported in many regions, and food security concerns are growing in East Africa and the Asia-Pacific.

Forecasts and Expert Assessments

Forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate that El Nino is likely to peak in December.

Dr. Hausfather stated that the latest projections are surprising and poised to break records by a remarkable margin.