Three Critical Risk Warnings for the Global Economy from Fitch Ratings

International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings drew attention to three main risks that could impact the global economy: a slowdown in artificial intelligence investments, energy supply disruptions in the Middle East, and rising financing costs.

According to Fitch's Global Risk Outlook report, adverse changes were observed in all core risk indicators during the third quarter of 2026. The agency identified the deceleration of artificial intelligence investments, disruptions in energy supply in the Middle East, and rising financing costs as the most significant risk headings for the upcoming period.

The report also included expectations regarding the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). While expecting one more rate hike in 2026, Fitch raised its 2027 policy interest rate forecast to 4.25 percent and projected that the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds would decline to 4.8 percent by the end of 2027. It was emphasized that potential energy disruptions originating from the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East could drive up oil prices and inflationary pressures.