Three Different Scenarios and Figures for the January 2027 Minimum Wage Increase

The 2027 minimum wage increase marathon will gain clarity following the Minimum Wage Determination Commission meetings to be held in December, and three different scenarios based on inflation forecasts and budget tax exemption data have been brought to the table.

The three different scenarios brought to the table for the minimum wage increase rate are based on inflation expectations and increases in budget tax exemptions. Within the scope of the 2027 budget negotiations, it was decided to allocate 1 trillion 460 billion TL for the tax exemption support to be provided to employees, and this amount points to an increase rate of 33.7 percent.

It is calculated that if a 30 percent increase is applied to the current minimum wage of 28,075 TL, the net figure will rise to 36,500 TL and the gross minimum wage to 42,939 TL. On the other hand, the inflation expectation for 2026 was announced as 29 percent, and the expected inflation for 2027 as 21 percent.

While the year-end inflation expectation in the Medium-Term Program was announced as 28.4 percent, the minimum wage reaches 35,094 TL if a 25 percent increase is applied, and reaches the 36,048 TL level when the 28.4 percent rate in the Medium-Term Program is taken as a basis.