Turkey's Current Account Deficit Expected to Increase According to Citigroup
High energy prices caused by conflicts in the Middle East are leading to an expansion in Turkey's current account deficit.
Citigroup economists expect Turkey's current account deficit to rise as a proportion of GDP by the end of 2026, in line with high energy costs triggered by conflicts in the Middle East.
The Impact of Energy Prices
In a report authored by Citigroup economists İlker Domaç and Gültekin Işıklar, it was stated that high energy prices driven by conflicts in the Middle East will reflect on Turkey's external balance.
Current Account Deficit Ratio Expectation
According to the published note, the ratio of the current account deficit to Gross Domestic Product will increase from 1.9 percent at the end of 2025 to 2.7 percent by the end of 2026.
August Balance Data
Official data released on Tuesday revealed that Turkey's current account balance recorded a surplus of $4.053 billion in August.
Eight-Month Developments
Economists noted that in the first eight months of 2026, the current account deficit expanded by $11.8 billion compared to the same period of last year, reaching $31.5 billion.
Sources of Deterioration
It was stated that this deterioration stemmed from an $11 billion drop in the core surplus and a $4.6 billion increase in the energy deficit, despite a $3.9 billion contraction in the gold deficit.
Structural Assessments
Economists emphasized that there is limited evidence of a structural shift in the link between the current account balance and growth, and that competitiveness and low import intensity will be necessary for a permanent improvement.