UN Report: Global Warming Will Exceed 1.5 Degrees But Mitigation is Possible

The Emissions Gap Report 2026 published by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) revealed that global warming will exceed the 1.5°C threshold, but that with deep and rapid emission cuts, the peak can be limited and temperatures can be brought back below 1.5°C by the end of the century.

According to the report titled "Emissions Gap Report 2026: A Point of No Return" published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) on Wednesday, the "lowest possible" overshoot scenario, which foresees limiting peak warming to 1.7 to 1.8°C in the middle of the century, is being targeted. To achieve this goal, emissions need to be reduced by 18 percent by the end of the decade compared to 2025 levels, by 45 percent by 2035, and by 69 percent five years later.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated in his message published alongside the report that an overshoot does not mean surrender, emphasizing that warming can be kept as short and small as possible and brought back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century. UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen pointed out that every additional fraction of a degree and year of warming above 1.5°C increases climate risks such as deadly floods, heatwaves, and wildfires, stating that all means must be mobilized to minimize peak warming.

The report stated that if current policies continue, warming could reach 2.8°C this century and continue to rise thereafter. It was noted that even if all national climate action plans (NDCs) submitted under the Paris Agreement are implemented, warming would be limited to 2.6°C, and these outcomes are more negative than last year's projections due to the U.S. withdrawal from the climate agreement and revisions in historical emission estimates.

The report calls for accelerating the goals of the First Global Stocktake (GST) conducted between 2021 and 2023 to evaluate progress toward the Paris Agreement. In this context, it is emphasized that by 2030, renewable energy capacity must be tripled, the annual rate of energy efficiency improvement must be doubled, fossil fuels must be phased out, non-carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced, and deforestation must be halted and reversed. The second GST process will begin next month at the UN COP31 climate conference to be held in Antalya, Turkey.