US Midterm Elections a Critical Test for Trump's Economic Policies

The congressional midterm elections to be held in the United States on November 3, 2026, carry the character of a critical referendum on President Donald Trump's economic policies in his second term, beyond determining the seat distribution in the legislature. The cost of living, energy prices, borrowing costs, budget deficits, and tariffs play a central role in voter preferences.

While Republicans aim to maintain their majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate to continue the current economic course, Democrats aim to regain control in Congress by rallying behind the backlash against economic hardship and inflation. A potential shift in majority could directly affect the balance of power between the White House and Congress as well as legislative processes.

The US Congress consists of a bicameral structure. The House of Representatives has 435 seats, with Republicans currently holding 218 and Democrats holding 214 seats, alongside 1 independent member and 2 vacant seats. In the 100-member Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats, Democrats hold 45 seats, and 2 independent senators serve.

According to official data, annual consumer inflation rose from 3.4 percent in August 2026 to 3.7 percent as of September 2026. The Consumer Price Index increased by 0.6 percent on a monthly basis; the annual increase in the energy index reached 20.4 percent, while the annual rise in food prices reached 2.5 percent. Bureau of Labor Statistics data revealed that the import price index rose by 1.1 percent monthly and 8.1 percent annually in September.