World Bank Expects 2026 Commodity Prices and Energy Surge

The October issue of the World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook report has been published. The report stated that conflicts in the Middle East are expected to reduce oil inventories and push energy prices to a four-year high, while disruptions in grain shipments and the El Nino weather event threaten harvests and food accessibility.

The World Bank report noted that declining oil inventories have left the world more vulnerable to new supply shocks. Following a three-year decline, energy prices are projected to rise by 32 percent in 2026 and drop by 11.5 percent in 2027. The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to increase from $69 a barrel in 2025 to $91 in 2026, and fall to $79 in 2027.

Food commodity prices are expected to rise by 10.3 percent in 2026 and 7.2 percent in 2027, driven by conflicts disrupting grain shipments, El Nino threatening harvests, and high fuel and fertilizer prices increasing costs. Overall commodity prices are projected to increase by 23.1 percent in 2026 before falling by 7 percent in 2027. It was warned that these forecasts are based on the assumption that there will be no major escalation in conflicts affecting global commodity supplies, and that prices could rise even further if the conflict in the Middle East intensifies and damage to Russia's oil infrastructure persists. Ayhan Kose, World Bank Deputy Chief Economist and Prospects Group Director, stated that markets are under the influence of multiple major shocks occurring simultaneously.