Intellectual progress and institutional infrastructure in the age of artificial intelligence
The relationship between frontier artificial intelligence, execution capacity, and institutional infrastructure is discussed in the context of the future of technological and scientific progress.
How technological and scientific progress will take shape in the age of artificial intelligence is being debated depending on the balance between frontier intelligence and execution capacity.
Intelligence and Institutional Infrastructure
Since the beginning of the universe, humanity has solved many equations regarding the cosmos and observed the universe. However, physically it is still not able to move very far from the Earth.
While our minds reach places our hands cannot touch, this mismatch raises two distinct possibilities for whether civilization should advance through depth or width.
The Rising Cost of Progress
Research productivity and economic indicators show that making progress over time requires more resources and researchers.
Research by Nick Bloom and his colleagues reveals that sustaining Moore's Law requires vastly more researchers compared to the past.
Intelligence as Complementary Elements
Economists define inputs as complements when an increase in the quantity of one raises the value of the other. Frontier intelligence and the capacity to execute ideas are complements in this sense.
A great idea requires institutional structures, laws, bureaucracy, and supply chains to bring it to life; while genius designs the monument, institutions lay the stones.
The Role of Artificial Intelligence and Bottlenecks
Artificial intelligence reduces scarcity in the implementation process by writing code and conducting literature reviews, supporting individuals in building their own ideas.
As artificial intelligence begins to generate brilliant insights on its own in the future, the question of whether human infrastructure can absorb these ideas gains importance.
Civilization of Depth and Width
Potential future paths fall into two categories: a civilization of depth, where superintelligence reduces the need for physical capital, and a civilization of width, where complexity increases.
Throughout history, major projects have required the backing of a broader global economy and institutional support.
Pathways of Knowledge Progress
Intelligence can advance knowledge by reasoning from first principles, extracting new insights from existing evidence, or gathering new evidence through observation and intervention.
While a civilization of depth does not eliminate the need to interact with the physical world, it can radically optimize the process through simulations and reasoning.