United Nations Report: Global Economic Growth to Slow Down to 2.6 Percent
In a newly published report, the United Nations announced that global economic growth will fall to 2.6 percent this year, while trade volume is set to increase by 4 percent.
According to the "Trade and Development 2026: The Geoeconomics of Development" report published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), a slowdown is expected in the world economy this year. The global economy, which grew by 2.9 percent in 2025, is projected to decline to 2.6 percent this year due to high energy prices driven by the war in the Middle East and financial tests.
Global Growth Projections
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) announced in its comprehensive report that the world economy will slow down to 2.6 percent this year, following a 2.9 percent growth in 2025. The organization forecasts that the global economy will record a growth of 2.7 percent in 2027.
While high energy prices caused by the war in the Middle East continue to test the global economy and financial stability, growth in developing economies is projected to drop from 4.7 percent in 2025 to 4 percent this year.
Status of Developed Economies
Developed economies are generally characterized by stagnation, tightening monetary conditions, and weak industrial performance as they attempt to absorb the energy shock. While the U.S. economy remains a key driver of global growth, it is expected to grow by 2.1 percent in 2026 and 1.8 percent in 2027, following a 2.1 percent growth in 2025.
Western Europe remains trapped in a low-growth phase, vulnerable to stagnant investment, trade fragmentation, and fluctuations in energy prices. In contrast, certain Asian economies such as South Korea and Japan are benefiting from vibrant global demand for high-tech components and semiconductors.
Artificial Intelligence and Trade Dynamics
Global trade in goods and services, which broke a record at 35 trillion dollars last year driven by rising prices, is expected to grow by 4 percent this year. Artificial intelligence stands out as the most crucial driver of dynamism in trade.
However, the report emphasizes that only a few economies are able to benefit from the artificial intelligence boom, and the gap between developed economies and the developing world is not closing.
Geoeconomic Risks and Divergence
UNCTAD Acting Secretary-General Pedro Manuel Moreno stated that the global economy has absorbed the pressures of 2026 with more resilience than expected, but this situation masks a widening divergence.
Stating that governments are pursuing strategic goals in critical sectors for national security and technological leadership, Moreno noted that digital technologies and artificial intelligence are blurring the line between economic and national security.
Financing and Development Aid
As developing countries face new technological and policy barriers, pressures on financing are also mounting. Official development assistance is expected to decline for the third consecutive year.
Pointing out the increasing volatility in portfolio flows toward emerging markets, the organization stated that this situation strains global economic balances.