August Inflation Expectations and the Impact of Fuel
Ahead of the August inflation data to be announced by TUIK, experts draw attention to the pressure of fuel price hikes on price increases.
As the August inflation data to be announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute on Thursday is awaited, experts are evaluating the negative impacts of increases in fuel prices on inflation.
TUIK Data to Be Announced on Thursday
The Turkish Statistical Institute will share the August inflation data with the public on Thursday at 10:00.
Expectation of Decline in Annual Inflation
Economists' expectations for August consumer inflation range between 1.25 percent and 2.10 percent.
According to average expectations, annual inflation, which was at 31.75 percent in July, is projected to recede to 31.52 percent in August.
Impact of the Increase in Fuel Prices
Prof. Dr. Hakkı Hakan Yılmaz stated that gasoline and diesel prices increased by 10.7 percent and 14.4 percent, respectively, in August.
It was stated that the direct contribution of these increases to monthly inflation materialized at the level of 0.33 points.
Price Increases in the Eight-Month Period
It was reported that price increases in the period between January and August reached 47.5 percent for diesel and 33.2 percent for gasoline.
It was recorded that the direct contribution of fuel to inflation in the aforementioned eight-month process reached 1.25 points.
Inflation Warning for the Coming Period
It was emphasized that increases in energy prices will reflect on secondary prices and the deterioration in pricing behavior may accelerate.
A warning was made that inflation could exceed projections in September due to the exit from the sliding-scale fuel pricing system (eşelmobil) and education expenditures.