BBVA Research's 2026 Turkey Economy and Inflation Expectations
BBVA Research maintained Turkey's economic growth forecast for 2026 at 3 percent, while keeping its year-end inflation projection at the 30 percent level.
In an evaluation published by BBVA Research, Turkey's 2026 economic growth forecast was kept constant at 3 percent, while it was announced that the year-end inflation expectation is at the 30 percent level, and projections regarding exchange rates and interest rates were shared.
Global Uncertainties and Growth Projections
BBVA Research stated that global growth has remained resilient despite negative factors, but geopolitical risks and tight financial conditions have increased uncertainty.
The institution maintained Turkey's 2026 growth forecast at 3 percent, expecting economic activity to follow a moderate course in the near term.
Inflation and Monetary Policy Assessments
While the year-end inflation forecast was kept at 30 percent, it was emphasized that risks are slightly skewed to the upside and tight monetary conditions must continue.
Dollar/TL and Reserve Expectations
The institution stated that it maintains its expectation of a nominal depreciation of 1.5 to 2 percent per month in the US Dollar/TRY exchange rate.
External Balance and Energy Market Impacts
It was reported that high energy prices exert pressure on the external balance, but the resilient outlook in tourism and exports will counterbalance this effect.