CBRT September MPC Minutes Released: Energy Prices Pose Risks

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey published the minutes of the September Monetary Policy Committee meeting and shared its assessments regarding the inflation outlook. The report stated that while positive developments are expected in the core goods and food group, global energy prices pose an upward risk.

Main Trend of Inflation

The Central Bank stated that despite monthly fluctuations, recent inflation realizations and leading indicators point to a decline in the underlying trend of inflation.

Impact of Service Items

It was emphasized that calendar shifts in foundation university tuition and pilgrimage fees were effective in the rise of the underlying trend in August, and this situation will create a mechanical drop driven by educational services in September.

Core Goods and Food Expectations

While the moderate course of prices in the core goods group is expected to continue in September, it is anticipated that annual inflation in the food group will drop significantly alongside the decline in fresh fruit and vegetable prices.

Risks in Energy Prices

It was stated that the upward trend in global energy prices pulls up the annual inflation of the energy group through fuel and bottled gas, posing a risk to the outlook due to geopolitical developments.