Consumer Inflation Fell Below 30 Percent After 57 Months
In Turkey, consumer inflation remained below expectations in September, falling to 29.73 percent annually and dropping below 30 percent for the first time since November 2021.
In Turkey, consumer inflation stood at 1.84 percent monthly in September, driven by a decline in food prices and state support. With this development, annual inflation fell below the 30 percent threshold for the first time since November 2021, reaching 29.73 percent.
September Inflation Figures
Consumer inflation in Turkey came in at 1.84 percent in September, below the expectation of 2.2 percent, thanks to a decline in food prices—which carry the highest weight—and state support limiting the impact of oil prices.
With this rate, consumer inflation fell below 30 percent on an annual basis for the first time since November 2021, dropping to the level of 29.73 percent.
Impact of Food and Other Sectors
In the food group, particularly fresh vegetable, fruit, and fish prices saw declines of up to 9 percent, emerging as the main reason for the surprise in September inflation.
While the clothing and footwear group increased by 3.98 percent due to the effect of new season products, the housing, water, electricity, and gas group rose by 2.71 percent.
Transportation and Energy Developments
In the transportation group, efforts were made to limit negative effects through special consumption tax support applied against the rise in global oil prices.
Despite the SCT support, diesel and gasoline prices increased in September, making this group the item that contributed the most to headline inflation.
Core Inflation Indicators
Although declines were recorded in core inflation indicators on an annual basis, the monthly rate of increase accelerated, which began to be closely monitored by the market.
The monthly increase in B core inflation rose to 2.01 percent, and in C core inflation to 2.14 percent.
Market Expectations and Interest Rate Spread
Experts stated that the September inflation data presented a supportive outlook in terms of both policy rate cuts and the banking index.
The gap between the Central Bank policy rate and headline inflation reached 7.27 at the end of September.
Inflation Evaluation from Minister Şimşek
Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek emphasized in a statement on social media that annual inflation fell below 30 percent after 57 months.
Şimşek stated that had there been no war, inflation would have been calculated to be 7 points lower this year, and that inertia in services inflation would decrease with rule-based regulations.