Economic Confidence Index Exceeded the Optimism Threshold in August
Reflecting the expectations of consumers and sectors, the economic confidence index reached 100.6 in August, surpassing the optimism threshold.
Reflecting the expectations of groups such as consumers and the services sector regarding the general economic situation, the economic confidence index rose to 100.6 in August, exceeding the optimism threshold. According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute, the index, which was 96.4 in April, recorded a steady increase over the last four months.
Threshold Value Surpassed in August
Announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute, the economic confidence index rose to 96.4 in April, 97.2 in May, 98.9 in June, and 99.8 in July. In August, the index exceeded 100—the threshold value indicating optimism regarding the economic situation—and climbed to 100.6.
Different Trends Observed in Sub-sectors
During this period, the consumer confidence index increased by 1 percent on a monthly basis to 90.8. In the same period, the real sector confidence index was recorded at 102.4, an increase of 1.2 percent. Meanwhile, the services sector confidence index decreased by 0.1 percent to 111.9.
Retail and Construction Sectors
The retail trade sector confidence index decreased by 0.8 percent to 110.1, while the construction sector confidence index fell by 0.4 percent to 83.1.
Expert Evaluations and Expectations
Prof. Dr. Murat Çetinkaya, a faculty member at Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University, stated that the rise of the economic confidence index to the 100.6 level points to a gradual improvement in the expectations of economic actors. Çetinkaya noted that the fact that the increase was not evenly distributed across sub-components indicates that the recovery in expectations has not yet acquired a strong and widespread character.
Strong Recovery on the Consumer Side
Prof. Dr. Talha Yalta, Head of the Economics Department at TOBB University of Economics and Technology, emphasized that the index has increased for four consecutive months since its level in April in the August data, reporting that the main component driving the improvement is the consumer side, with the consumer confidence index reaching a 39-month high.
Manufacturing Industry and Forward-Looking Projections
Prof. Dr. Eren Çaşkurlu, a faculty member at Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University, stated that the index exceeded the value of 100 following a prolonged fluctuating course, with consumers and the manufacturing industry sectors playing an influential role in this increase. Economist Bora Tamer Yılmaz noted that economic confidence indices are tangible reflections of rationalization.