Economist Mahfi Eğilmez Warns Against Real Sector's Foreign Exchange Deficit
Emphasizing that the net foreign exchange deficit of the real sector has reached record levels, the expert urged close monitoring of risks by citing past crises as examples.
Former Undersecretary of the Treasury Mahfi Eğilmez stated that the net foreign exchange open position of the real sector has risen to $210.8 billion, issued critical warnings regarding exchange rate risk, and recalled similar processes during the 2001 crisis.
Foreign Exchange Position of the Real Sector
Former Undersecretary of the Treasury and economist Mahfi Eğilmez evaluated the foreign exchange open position of the real sector in detail in an article published on his personal blog.
Impact of Exchange Rate Increases on Balance Sheets
Eğilmez noted that when a company's foreign exchange debt exceeds its foreign exchange revenue, an increase in exchange rates raises the TRY equivalent of the debt and deteriorates balance sheets.
Macroeconomic Risk Dimension
He stated that the simultaneous holding of open positions by numerous companies turns into a macroeconomic risk, which can negatively impact investments and employment.
Reminder of the 2001 Crisis
Recalling that Turkey experienced the effects of a similar mechanism during the 2001 crisis, Eğilmez stated that the open position of the banking sector at that time created fragility.
Current Data and the Amount of the Deficit
According to CBRT data for July 2026, it was pointed out that the foreign exchange deficit of real sector firms has reached the level of $210.8 billion.
Comprehensive Evaluation of Risks
Eğilmez emphasized that this large figure alone is not an indicator of a crisis, and that revenues, maturities, and hedging instruments must also be taken into account.