Economists' September CBRT Interest Rate and Inflation Expectations Announced

According to Matriks Haber's September 2026 survey, economists representing brokerage houses and banks anticipate that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will leave the policy rate unchanged at 37.00 percent at its upcoming meeting.

September Policy Rate Expectations

A total of 26 brokerage houses and banks, including 19 domestic and 7 foreign institutions, participated in the September 2026 survey conducted by Matriks Haber. Out of the 20 economists who submitted forecasts for the September meeting, 18 predicted that the weekly repo rate would be kept constant.

Meanwhile, 2 economists in the survey predicted that the policy rate would be cut by 100 basis points to 36.00 percent. Thus, the median forecast stood at 37.00 percent, while the average forecast was 36.90 percent.

Future Interest Rate Projections

The median expectation for the remaining two meetings of the year pointed toward an interest rate cut. Of the participants, 10 stated they expect a rate cut in two meetings, while 2 expect it in one meeting.

Economists' expectation for the benchmark interest rate at the end of 2026 was maintained at 35.00 percent, and the year-end 2027 interest rate projection was also kept at 27.00 percent. The median forecast for 12 months ahead was 30.00 percent.

The Central Bank's Previous Steps

The Central Bank had kept the interest rate constant at 37.00 percent in its last four meetings, in line with expectations. In January, the rate was lowered from 38.00 percent to 37.00 percent with a 100-basis-point cut.

Except for the hike in April of last year, the Bank had reduced interest rates by a total of 1,050 basis points through 5 rate-cut decisions. The interest rate, which was at 45.00 percent at the beginning of 2025, had been lowered to 38.00 percent.

Upcoming Meeting Calendar

Following the September 10 meeting, the CBRT will hold two more MPC meetings for the remainder of the year on October 22, 2026, and December 10, 2026. The final inflation report of the year will be presented on November 12, 2026.

Most recently, following the inflation report presentation on August 13, 2026, the Bank resumed one-week repo auctions on August 23, 2026.

Year-End Inflation Expectations

Economists' year-end 2026 CPI expectation rose from 29.00 percent to 29.50 percent. For the end of 2027, inflation forecasts increased from 22.00 percent to 23.00 percent.

While the slowdown in domestic demand and the improvement in services inflation support disinflation, experts view geopolitical developments and energy prices as the primary upside risks.