Fitch Ratings Announces New Growth and Inflation Expectations for the Turkish Economy

International rating agency Fitch Ratings shared growth rates, inflation forecasts, changes in foreign exchange reserves, and exchange rate expectations with the public in its new report on the Turkish economy.

Exchange Rate and Inflation Forecasts

International rating agency Fitch Ratings expects the depreciation of the Turkish lira to continue gradually and inflation to remain high in the upcoming period.

The agency's year-end dollar/TL forecast was announced as 51 lira for the end of 2026 and 60 lira for the end of 2027.

Revision in Inflation Expectations

Fitch's year-end inflation forecast was set at 30.5 percent, while its expectation for the end of 2027 was announced at 23.5 percent.

Revising its inflation expectations upward by 1 point for both years compared to its previous forecasts, the agency emphasized that sticky inflation expectations and high energy prices could slow down the disinflation process.

Recovery in Foreign Exchange Reserves

The report also drew attention to the recovery in Turkey's foreign exchange reserves and shared important data.

It was reported that gross foreign exchange reserves increased by approximately 25 billion dollars since the end of March to reach 176 billion dollars as of September 23, while net reserves excluding swaps rose from 16 billion dollars to 45 billion dollars.

Economic Growth Expectations

Fitch Ratings projects that the Turkish economy will grow by 2.8 percent in 2026 and 4.3 percent in 2027.

The agency stated that a potential easing of lending conditions and a decline in real interest rates in the 2027 period could support economic growth.