Four Different Inflation Scenarios for the January 2027 Retiree Raise
The January 2027 raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees is taking shape based on inflation data from the second half of 2026, with potential lowest pension figures calculated through forecasts from four different institutions.
The raise rate that SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive in January 2027 has begun to crystallize based on inflation expectations for the second half of 2026. Following the announced July and August data, four different raise scenarios based on forecasts from the Medium-Term Program (OVP), the Central Bank, the market survey, and the economic outlook index have been calculated.
First Two Months' Inflation Data on Retiree Pensions
According to the data announced in July, the inflation rate for the first 6 months of the year was realized at 17.76 percent, and this rate was reflected as a raise on retiree pensions. With the increase in July, the lowest retiree pension rose to 23 thousand 552 liras.
With July inflation realizing at 1.78 percent and August inflation at 1.84 percent, the first two-month portion of the inflation in the second half of the year became 3.65 percent. The raise rate will be finalized after the remaining four months of data.
Medium-Term Program Forecast and Possible Raise Rate
In the Medium-Term Program covering the 2027-2029 period, the 2026 year-end inflation target was announced as 28.4 percent. If this target is realized, the 6-month inflation in the second half of 2026 is expected to be at the level of 9.04 percent.
In this scenario, the January 2027 raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will be 9.04 percent. The lowest retiree pension of 23 thousand 552 liras is expected to rise to approximately 25 thousand 681 liras.
Central Bank Inflation Report Expectation
In the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's third Inflation Report of the year, the 2026 year-end CPI forecast was raised from 26 percent to 28 percent. In the event that year-end inflation is realized as 28 percent, the inflation in the second half of the year is expected to be 8.70 percent.
In line with this calculation, it is projected that the lowest retiree pension will increase from 23 thousand 552 liras to approximately 25 thousand 601 liras.
Market Participants Survey Forecasts
In the Market Participants Survey, the 2026 year-end inflation expectation was announced as 29.43 percent. If this forecast is realized, the 6-month inflation in the second half of 2026 is projected to be approximately 9.92 percent.
According to this rate, it is calculated that the lowest retiree pension of 23 thousand 552 liras will rise to approximately 25 thousand 888 liras.
Economic Outlook Index Scenario
In the Economic Outlook Index prepared in cooperation with the Financial Institutions Association and Istanbul University, the 2026 year-end inflation expectation was included as 30.32 percent. If this forecast is realized, the 6-month inflation in the second half of the year will reach the level of 10.67 percent.
In such a case, the lowest retiree pension is expected to rise to approximately 26 thousand 65 liras.