Global Markets Focus on CBRT and US Inflation Data Next Week
Investors are closely tracking US inflation data and interest rate decisions by the European and Turkish central banks next week.
While global markets follow a mixed course, next week's inflation data in the US and the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey are in the focus of investors.
Global Markets and Bond Yields
US attacks on Iran pushed oil prices higher and selling pressure in the bond market caused a volatile trend in global markets.
This week, the US 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.82%, the highest level since November 2023, while the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.42%, the highest since January 2025.
US Employment Data and Statements
Nonfarm payrolls in the US increased by 162,000 in August, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%.
US President Donald Trump emphasized in a social media post that employment data exceeded expectations and stated that interest rates should be cut.
Commodity Markets and Exchange Rates
Under the influence of geopolitical risks originating from the Middle East, the barrel price of November Brent crude increased by 6.4% to $96.4.
Amid expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate hikes, the ounce price of gold ended the week with a 0.6% decrease at $4,430.
Next Week's Calendar in the US and Europe
In the US next week, the PPI will be released on Thursday, and the CPI and University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will be released on Friday.
In Europe, while the ECB's interest rate decision is awaited, energy prices stand out as the primary risk, with natural gas prices hovering at high levels.
Current Situation in Domestic Markets
On Borsa İstanbul, the BIST 100 index fell by 4.30% on a weekly basis to close at 14,012.42 points, and the US Dollar/TRY rate ended the week at 48.4320.
Next week on Thursday, the interest rate decision of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey and industrial production will be monitored.
CBRT Expectations and Money Markets
According to Bloomberg HT's September CBRT interest rate decision survey, the policy rate is expected to be kept constant at 37%.
The withholding tax rate on money market funds was determined as 10%.