Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecasts Citing Middle East Disruptions
Financial institution Goldman Sachs has updated its upcoming crude oil barrel price expectations, assuming that Middle East-induced maritime transport disruptions will spill over into next year.
Goldman Sachs analysts have increased their oil price forecasts for December 2026 and 2027 by $5 per barrel, driven by expectations that maritime transport disruptions in the Middle East region will continue in the future.
New Oil Price Forecasts
According to a report prepared by financial institution analysts including Daan Struyven, the Brent crude forecast for December 2026 has been raised to $85.
In the same report, the 2027 Brent crude forecast was set at $80, while the December 2026 forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was announced at $80 and next year's forecast at $75.
Rationale for Limited Price Increase
Behind the limited upward revision in these price forecasts lies the fact that commercial land-based oil inventories in OECD countries have decreased very little since the onset of the conflicts.
Current inventory data and developments clearly show that the supply deficit felt in the market has remained smaller in scale compared to expectations.
Supply Adaptation Process to New Conditions
Analysts predict that even in a scenario where disruptions and interruptions in maritime transport are prolonged, crude oil supply in the Middle East region will adapt to the conditions of the new era over time.
During this adaptation process, factors such as an increase in informal shipments and the commissioning of new pipelines towards the end of 2027 are expected to come into play.