Houthi Attacks in Bab el-Mandeb Shake Global Trade and Markets
Conflicts in Yemen and the endangerment of vessel transits in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have led to a sharp rise in oil prices, while increasing inflation expectations and Fed rate hike probabilities have put pressure on gold prices.
The actions of Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and their negative impact on ship traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have caused fluctuations in global markets. As Brent crude exceeded $104 and energy costs increased, experts state that interest rate hike expectations are putting pressure on gold.
Critical Developments in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
The takeover of several cities in Yemen by Iran-backed Houthis and drone attacks targeting Saudi Arabia have triggered a new crisis in the Middle East. Ship traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the vital transit points of world trade, has been adversely affected by this situation.
Saudi Arabia's announcement that it shut down its East-West pipeline as a precaution and militia statements regarding the control of the strait have escalated tensions in the region. Conflicts between government forces and Houthis on the Yemeni coast have reduced commercial vessel transits to critical levels.
Changes in Commercial Vessel Transits
Due to the conflicts in the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, a total of 79 commercial vessels were able to pass in the last three days. It is known that this figure hovered around a daily average of 70 to 75 before the crisis.
Oil Prices and Global Markets
While the possibility of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closing following the Strait of Hormuz has deeply shaken global markets, Brent crude exceeding $104 has created widespread repercussions worldwide. Experts note that the inability to use the Suez Canal or the decrease in transits increases transportation costs.
The fact that approximately 9 percent of global maritime trade and 20 percent of container trade pass through this region highlights the economic dimension of the crisis. While high oil prices fuel inflation, this situation increases the perception of risk in financial markets.
Gold Prices and Fed Expectations
Gold and Money Markets Expert Zafer Ergezen drew attention to the impact of high oil prices on inflation and interest rates. He stated that as long as oil prices remain high, upward movement in gold prices is difficult.
Rising interest rates and the appreciation of the dollar are putting pressure on precious metals. Experts point out that the probability of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has risen above 70 percent, emphasizing that these developments directly affect the gold market.