Inflation, fund crisis and CBRT interest rate policy discussed on Economy Desk
September inflation, Nouriel Roubini's assessments, the Development Road Project and the Central Bank's possible interest rate steps were discussed.
On the Economy Desk program, September inflation expectations, Nouriel Roubini's global economy forecasts, the fund crisis, the Development Road Project and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's possible interest rate policy were evaluated comprehensively.
Assessments on the Global Economy from Roubini
Economist Nouriel Roubini stated that high energy prices, protectionism and trade wars are suppressing the global economy in the short term. He expressed expectations for lower inflation and higher growth next year.
September Inflation and Annual Rate Expectations
The September inflation data, which markets are focused on, was extensively covered in the program. It was emphasized that a monthly inflation rate remaining below the same period of last year could pull down the annual rate through base effect.
Financing Model for the Development Road Project
In the Development Road Project being carried out with Iraq, it is planned to supply oil to Turkey and pool revenues in a fund. Payments in the project, which will extend from Basra to Europe, are envisaged to be made from this fund.
Turkish Contractors' Access to European Tenders
If the price advantage that Turkey provides to domestic companies in public tenders is not applied in certain EU countries, regulations based on the principle of reciprocity could facilitate Turkish companies' access to European tenders.
Security and Defense Priority in the European Union
It was stated that the European Union is preparing to allocate a larger share of its budget priorities to defense spending. This situation could create political tension in member states by reducing agricultural subsidies.
Export Figures and Cost Pressures
It was reported that annualized exports have reached the targeted level, but imports have also broken records. It was noted that the gap between internal cost increases and the exchange rate is challenging exporters' competitiveness.
Possibility of Interest Rate Cut for the Central Bank
It was stated that if inflation falls below 30 percent and foreign exchange demand stemming from the fund crisis is kept under control, the CBRT could make an interest rate cut of approximately 1 point.