Inflation Targets Changed Seventeen Times in Five Years
Statements by Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek linking inflation to geopolitical crisis contradict official data showing price increases were rapidly accelerating even before the war.
Statements by Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek attributing high inflation to geopolitical risks contradict official data. The announced figures reveal that price increases were rising rapidly even before the war began, and inflation targets have been revised 17 times over the past five years.
Geopolitical Crisis and Inflation Statements
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek made statements linking high inflation in Turkey to the escalating geopolitical crisis along the axis of Iran, the US, and Israel.
Şimşek stated that in the absence of war, inflation would have been at least 7 percentage points lower and the year would have closed in the 21-22 percent range.
Official Data and the Pre-War Picture
This narrative, which sits at the center of the economic management's disinflation discourse, contradicts data from months before the impact of the crisis emerged.
The Turkish economy entered 2026 under strong inflation pressure even during a period when the war had not yet reflected on pricing behaviors.
January and February Inflation Figures
According to Turkish Statistical Institute data, monthly inflation reached 4.84 percent in January, while annual inflation reached the level of 30.65 percent.
February data made the breakdown in the disinflation target visible, ending the 20-month downward trend with annual inflation hitting 31.53 percent.
Internal Dynamics and Target Revisions
Although Brent oil prices increased following the outbreak of hot conflict on February 28, it was emphasized that the February data primarily stemmed from internal dynamics.
Since 2021, inflation targets have been revised upward a total of 17 times by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey and the economic administration.
Medium-Term Program and Capital Movements
The year-end target for 2026, which was initially 8.5 percent, was updated to 28.4 percent within the scope of the Medium-Term Program announced in September.
While these economic developments eroded citizens' purchasing power, direct investments made abroad reached 5.4 billion dollars in the first 10 months of 2026.