Iran conflict impact on diesel supply reported to surpass Russia-Ukraine war
Market analyses and sector forecasts reveal that the conflicts in Iran have caused a higher supply loss in the petroleum products market than the Russia-Ukraine war.
Market data and Bloomberg forecasts indicate that the Iran conflict has led to much larger losses in petroleum product supply than the Russia-Ukraine war.
Comparison of Supply Losses
It was reported that between the March and August period, there was an average daily oil supply loss of 770 thousand barrels originating from the Middle East.
Forecasts by Energy Aspects, Kpler, and Vortexa confirm that this decline is more than twice the daily loss of approximately 350 thousand barrels originating from Russia.
Restrictions on Diesel Shipments
The Iran conflict eliminated the anticipated oil supply surplus in the global energy market, causing prices to rise.
Although crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have resumed, the transportation of diesel and other petroleum products has been severely restricted.
Russia's Export Status
The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on diesel supply has increased in recent months due to refinery attacks and export restrictions by the Moscow administration.
During July and August, when Russia implemented a diesel export ban, shipments decreased by 615 thousand barrels per day compared to the same period in 2025.