January 2027 salary increase scenarios for civil servants and retirees
In line with the forecasts of the Financial Institutions Association and year-end inflation expectations, four different increase scenarios are on the table concerning millions of employees and retirees.
Four different scenarios stand out for civil servant and retiree salary increases shaped in line with economic indicators and year-end inflation estimates. The exact rates will become clear on January 4, 2027.
Fourth Scenario and Inflation Forecast
According to estimates by the Financial Institutions Association, year-end inflation is expected to be at the rate of 30.47 percent.
If this forecast materializes, the increase rate for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will be applied as 10.80 percent, while the increase rate for civil servants and retired civil servants, including the inflation difference, will be 8.73 percent.
Expected Lowest Salary and Pension Figures
Within the framework of this fourth scenario, the lowest SSK and Bağ-Kur retiree pension will rise to the level of 26,096 TL.
In the same scenario, the lowest civil servant salary will be 76,355 TL, while the lowest civil servant retiree pension will also rise to the level of 34,279 TL.
Expected Date for Definitive Data
Current economic indicators and various estimates indicate that year-end inflation could be between 28 percent and 30.5 percent.
However, all four scenarios are based on surveys and expectations, and the exact increase rates will be announced on January 4, 2027, following the release of inflation data for the months of September, October, November, and December.
Calculation Methods and Data
The increase rate for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will be determined based on the six-month inflation data generated in the second half of 2026.
The salary increase for civil servants and retired civil servants will be calculated with the inflation difference to be added to the 5 percent collective bargaining agreement increase.