Medium-Term Program Inflation Forecasts and Pension Increase Expectations

Economist Prof. Dr. Hakkı Hakan Yılmaz made evaluations regarding the 2027-2029 Medium-Term Program (MTP), calculated potential salary and pension increases in line with inflation forecasts, and shared probabilities for the lowest pension.

Medium-Term Program and Inflation Forecasts

Economist Prof. Dr. Hakkı Hakan Yılmaz, in his evaluations regarding the 2027-2029 Medium-Term Program, reminded that the 2026 inflation forecast was announced as 28.4 percent.

Retiree and Civil Servant Salary Increase Rates

Yılmaz stated that if the inflation forecasts hold true, workers and BAĞ-KUR retirees will receive a 9 percent raise in January 2027, while civil servants and civil servant retirees will receive a 7 percent raise.

Stating that the current lowest pension is 23,552 liras, Yılmaz emphasized that it is more realistic for inflation to materialize at the 31 percent level by the end of the year, conveying that increase rates could change under this scenario.

Energy Prices and Inflation Impact

Stating that increases in energy prices trigger inflation upwards, Yılmaz drew attention to the rises in diesel and gasoline prices.

Expressing that if the sliding scale system had not been applied, the price of diesel would have approached the 101 lira threshold and gasoline the 90 lira threshold, Yılmaz emphasized that energy costs negatively affect the production chain.

Minimum Wage Expectations

Making evaluations regarding the minimum wage as well, Yılmaz reminded that a 27 percent raise was made in 2026, and stated that due to the year-end inflation target of 21 percent in 2027, the minimum wage increase rate can be expected to be between 22 and 24 percent.