Medium-Term Program Prepared for the 2027-2029 Period Announced
Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz announced the details of the Medium-Term Program for the 2027-2029 period. In the new program, the 2026 growth forecast was updated to 3.3 percent, and the year-end inflation expectation was updated to 28.4 percent.
The Medium-Term Program (MTP), which serves as the economic roadmap for the 2027-2029 period, has been announced. According to the details shared by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, the 2026 growth forecast was updated to 3.3 percent, and the year-end inflation expectation was updated to 28.4 percent.
Global Developments and Assumptions
A period is being passed through where predictability is decreasing and risks have reached historically high levels. While the direct and indirect effects of the war in our region are reflected in the economy, Eurozone growth declined to 0.9 percent, and Brent oil rose to an average of 89.3 dollars.
Growth and Inflation Updates
While Turkey's economic growth forecast for 2026 was updated to 3.3 percent, the year-end inflation expectation rose to 28.4 percent. The energy import forecast increased to 71 billion dollars, and the foreign trade deficit forecast rose to 105 billion dollars.
Financial Stability and Confidence in the Turkish Lira
Within the framework of the implemented policies, confidence in the Turkish Lira continued to increase, and the share of TL deposits reached the 61.5 percent level. While the exit from protected deposits was completed smoothly, the risk premium fell below 220.
Export and External Balance Data
In August, exports reached the level of 280 billion dollars, while the share of medium-high technology products became 44.1 percent. The ratio of the current account deficit to national income materialized at 2.3 percent in 2026.
Austerity Measures and Budget Targets
With the austerity circular, audits were carried out in 2016 spending units, and the share of expenditures within the budget declined to 2.9 percent. By the end of 2026, national income is expected to exceed 1.8 trillion dollars.
New MTP Period Targets
Throughout the program period, growth is expected to be 4.2 percent in 2027 and 5 percent in 2029. The unemployment rate is targeted to drop to 7.6 percent in 2029, and inflation is targeted to fall to 9 percent in 2029.
Earthquake Expenditures and Investments
While expenditures made due to the earthquake reached 5.4 trillion TL, the construction of a total of 455 thousand independent residences for rightful beneficiaries was completed. In 2027, it is anticipated that 10 billion dollars of resources will be allocated for earthquake expenditures.