New Medium-Term Program Announced: Year-End Inflation Forecast Raised
The Medium-Term Program, the 3-year new roadmap of the Turkish economy, has been announced. According to the released data, inflation expectations were updated while the administration made a self-criticism regarding inertia.
Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz announced the new Medium-Term Program covering the 2027-2029 period. With the updates made, the inflation forecast for 2026 rose to 28.4 percent, while the economic administration shared targets and growth projections.
New Period Growth Targets
Cevdet Yılmaz stated that the growth, which they expect to be 3.3 percent in 2026, will strengthen gradually. The growth rate is projected to reach 4.2 percent in 2027, 4.6 percent in 2028, and 5 percent in 2029.
Change in Inflation Forecasts
The year-end inflation forecast for 2026, which was 16 percent in the previous program, was raised to 28.4 percent. It was observed that the inflation forecast increased by a full 12 points during this process.
Expectation of Inflation Decline
Within the framework of the updated program, it was stated that inflation is targeted to decline to 21 percent in 2027, 13.5 percent in 2028, and 9 percent in 2029.
Self-Criticism from Minister Şimşek
Minister of Finance Mehmet Şimşek made evaluations regarding inertia during his speech in the Q&A session. Şimşek stated that the initial targets were ambitious and that they probably underestimated the inertia.
Election Calendar Evaluation
Cevdet Yılmaz said that while preparing the program, they thought the elections would take place on time and did not make a speculative assumption. He emphasized that the election date is at the discretion of the Parliament.
MTP Criticism from the Opposition
NEW Party Kayseri Deputy Aşkın Genç criticized the program and stated that the targets have changed. Genç pointed out that the single-digit inflation target has been postponed from 2027 to the year 2029.