New Medium-Term Program targets evaluated by economists
The revision of inflation and growth forecasts in the new Medium-Term Program has led experts to offer varying interpretations regarding the program's realism and credibility.
The new Medium-Term Program covering the 2027-2029 period, announced by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, has entered the agenda of economic circles along with significant revisions in inflation and growth targets. Experts have evaluated the program.
Revisions Made in the MTP
With the new Medium-Term Program, significant changes were made to inflation and growth targets. The end-2026 inflation forecast was raised from 16 percent to 28.4 percent.
In the newly announced program, forecasts regarding growth, current account balance, and national income were also renewed, reshaping the economy's three-year roadmap ahead.
Evaluation by Prof. Hakan Kara
Former Central Bank Chief Economist Prof. Hakan Kara stated that the target is still optimistic but has been brought down to a more realistic level compared to the previous forecast.
Views of Prof. Dr. Emre Alkin
Topkapı University Rector Prof. Dr. Emre Alkin emphasized that the targets in the MTP point to a longer process in the fight against inflation.
Alkin voiced his projection that, looking at the current picture, single-digit inflation could be seen in 2030 or later.
Analysis by Dr. Altuğ Özaslan
Dr. Altuğ Özaslan stated that the MTP has low credibility from the market's perspective, noting that he evaluates the program as a statement of intent.
Özaslan shared his expectations regarding potential minimum wage increases in the new year and before the elections, as well as the real appreciation process of the Turkish lira.
Evaluations by Banu Kıvcı Tokalı
Banu Kıvcı Tokalı pointed out that the program's priorities begin with growth and employment, conveying that the growth rate has been raised to the 4-5 percent band.
Tokalı stated that fiscal discipline will be maintained at a certain level of tightness and that the budget deficit is targeted to be reduced below 3 percent by the end of the three-year period.
Criticisms by Prof. Dr. Serap Durusoy
Prof. Dr. Serap Durusoy argued that the targets for the new period are based on weak foundations and that the dynamics through which these targets will be achieved have not been explained.