New Season Expectations and Yield Forecasts for Walnut Harvest in Turkey
Following the agricultural frost event in 2025, varying yield and price expectations are taking shape across different regions for the 2026 walnut harvest.
While walnut production in Turkey experienced a decline in 2025 due to agricultural frost, varying yield and price expectations by region stand out for the 2026 harvest.
Impact of Agricultural Frost on Production
According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute, Turkey's walnut production declined in 2025 under the influence of agricultural frost. Production decreased by 38.2 percent compared to the previous year, dropping from 426 thousand tons to approximately 263 thousand tons.
Expansion in Production Areas
Despite the decline experienced, walnut production areas continued to grow in the long term. Between the years 2014 and 2024, the production area recorded an increase of 156 percent, while the production quantity registered a 135 percent increase.
Yield Forecasts by Region
For the 2026 harvest, various scenarios have emerged across different regions of Turkey. While a yield of approximately 2 thousand tons is expected in Niksar, Tokat, this figure is projected to be between 45 and 50 thousand tons in Kahramanmaraş.
Import Need and Consumption
Due to high domestic consumption of walnuts, the need for imports persists. In the 2023-2024 period, total consumption reached 427 thousand tons, per capita consumption was 5 kilograms, and the self-sufficiency rate remained at 80 percent.
New Season Price Expectations
Prices in the new season rank among the most important agenda items for producers. The price per kilogram of walnuts in Niksar is expected to range between 200 and 250 liras, whereas this price is anticipated to hover around the 300 lira level in Kahramanmaraş.