Rate hike scenarios strengthen as yields rise in the global bond market
As yields rise in global bond markets, increasing oil prices and potential steps by central banks bring a new tightening period to the agenda.
With yields on global government bonds rising simultaneously, interest rate hike scenarios have started to be debated again in the markets, and investors are focusing on the possibility of tightening.
Sell-off wave in the global bond market
While the interest rate hike scenario that investors thought they had left behind comes back to the agenda in the bond market, yields on global government bonds recorded simultaneous increases.
Activity in Brent oil prices
With the escalation of US-Iran tensions, the barrel price of Brent crude headed towards $92 with an increase of nearly 2 percent, raising concerns that energy costs could trigger inflation.
Bond yields in different countries
While the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond hit its highest level since January 2025 at 4.79 percent, multi-year peaks were also recorded in German, British, and Japanese bonds.
Fed interest rate hike expectations
Following statements by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, markets began pricing in a 67.5 percent probability that the Fed will implement a 25 basis point interest rate hike in September.
US rising borrowing costs
While the rise in bond yields increases the borrowing costs of the US Treasury, the 30-year bond yield rising to a 19-year peak creates new challenges in terms of budget balances.
Upcoming data and market direction
Employment and inflation data coming from the US will play a critical role in determining the direction in the markets and will shape the policies to be followed by central banks.