Rise of the AfD Ahead of German State Elections
Ahead of the upcoming state elections in Germany in September, the rise of the anti-immigrant AfD is assessed by the business world and economists as a serious threat in terms of growth, workforce, and investments.
As critical state elections approach in Germany in September, the rise of the AfD party, known for its anti-immigrant rhetoric, is heightening concerns about the country's economic future. Economists and business representatives warn that the party's policies could deal a heavy blow to growth, the workforce, and investments.
State Elections and Political Polarization
Elections will be held in Germany in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, and in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on September 20. Recent polls show that The Left Party and the anti-immigrant AfD could emerge from the polls as the strongest structures in these states.
Ahead of the upcoming elections in Berlin, political polarization has reached its peak, while coalition partners are reportedly losing ground and election results have become highly uncertain.
Criticism of the AfD from the Business World
While harsh criticism has come from the economic world regarding the AfD's program, risks such as a contraction in prosperity and a labor shortage in the event of a possible rise to power are being addressed under five main headings.
It is stated that populist policies could shrink production by an average of 10 percent in the long run, which would mean an economic loss of approximately 450 billion euros for Germany.
Labor Crisis and the Role of Immigrants
The AfD's mass deportation and anti-immigration rhetoric are triggering a severe labor crisis in the face of Germany's aging population. Experts forecast that if immigration halts, there will be a labor shortage of 7 million over the next 15 years.
Currently, immigrants produce 11 percent of East Germany's GDP, and across Saxony-Anhalt, they make up 33 to 40 percent of workers in the food, construction, and logistics sectors, with one in every five doctors being of foreign nationality.
EU Exit and Cost Scenarios
It is calculated that the party's policy of leaving the EU and the Eurozone would deal a major blow to the export-oriented German model, and a potential exit could lead to a loss of 700 billion euros within 5 years.
On the fiscal side, it is emphasized that the AfD's promises would create a massive budget deficit, and only a very small fraction of the promised financing can be covered.
Current Situation in Saxony-Anhalt
In the state of Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD is leading the polls by a wide margin at 42 percent, and the party is acting with the goal of forming a government alone in this state.
While the state's population is aging rapidly, it is estimated that it will lose 13 percent of its working-age population in the next 10 years.