Three different scenarios calculated for January 2027 SSK and Bağ-Kur retiree pension increases

Three different calculations were made for the pension increases that SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive in January 2027, based on inflation data and Central Bank expectations. There is widespread curiosity about how much the lowest retiree pension, which is currently 23,552 liras, will become in the new period.

July Increases in Retiree Pensions

Total inflation for retirees materialized at 17.76 percent for the first six-month period of 2026 in July. Following the applied raise, the lowest retiree pension was calculated as 23,552 liras.

With the additional increase resulting from this rate, monthly payments for public officials and civil servant retirees were raised by 13.52 percent.

August Inflation Expectations

The expectation survey regarding the August data to be announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute on Thursday, September 3, conducted by AA Finance, was concluded with the participation of 20 economists.

While the average of economists' monthly inflation expectations for August was 1.86 percent, annual inflation is expected to recede to 31.52 percent.

CBRT and Market Year-End Forecasts

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey updating its year-end inflation forecast caused the January 2027 retiree raise calculations to be reshaped.

Alongside the CBRT's year-end forecast of 28 percent, market participants' expectation of 29.43 percent stood out.

Three Different Raise Scenarios for January 2027

In the event that the CBRT's 28 percent year-end forecast materializes, the 6-month inflation in the second half is expected to be approximately 8.70 percent.

Under market participants' expectation of 29.43 percent, the rate reaches 9.92 percent. In the Economic Outlook Index, the year-end expectation was estimated at 30.32 percent.

Expected Figure for the Lowest Retiree Pension

To determine the definitive raise rate to be applied in January 2027, all inflation data pertaining to the second half of the year must be announced.

It is projected that the lowest retiree pension, which is currently 23,552 TL, will become 25,601 TL under the 8.70 percent raise scenario.