Potential Impacts of AfD's Success in Germany on Turkish Politics
While the historic success of the AfD in regional elections in Germany shakes political balances in Europe, experts are examining how this far-right wave might affect nationalist rhetoric and migration policies in Turkey.
As the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party emerging victorious from the Saxony-Anhalt regional elections reshapes political balances across Europe, experts are evaluating the potential repercussions of this situation on Turkish political balances, migration policies, and nationalist rhetoric.
The Rise of the Far-Right in Europe
The Alternative for Germany party finishing first in the Saxony-Anhalt regional elections is seen as a significant turning point for German domestic politics and Europe's future. With this result, the AfD achieved the highest vote share in its history, materializing the rise of the far-right in Germany following World War II.
According to PopuList data, approximately 23% of voters in Europe vote for far-right parties. This rate was around 7% in 2006 and 11% in 2016. Far-right parties hold influential positions not only in Germany but also in countries such as France, the Netherlands, and Italy.
International Diffusion of Political Trends
According to political scientists, although no direct short-term impact is seen between the far-right in Europe and domestic politics in Turkey, these developments can fuel reciprocal political rhetoric. Historian and Political Scientist Yalçın Murgul states that political trends spread in international waves and that these spreads have been triggered historically by actual ruling power experiences.
Murgul points out that, unlike previous global trends, today's movements lack a strong and stable leadership structure, stating that it is currently unpredictable where this wave will evolve.
The Nationalist Vein in Turkey
Experts state that the rise of the far-right in Europe will not produce the exact same results in Turkey, because Turkey's political system, voter behavior, and economic conditions are different.
TEPAV Director Prof. Dr. Murat Erdoğan emphasizes that rather than birthing a new AfD-type party in Turkey, this wave might strengthen the existing domestic and national rhetoric, though left-wing parties in Turkey also possess a serious nationalist vein.
The Situation of Small Parties in Turkey
The initial vote increase of the Victory Party (Zafer Partisi) upon its founding had triggered discussions over whether this wave had reached the country. The detention process of Chairman Ümit Özdağ and the party's estimated vote share between 3% and 7.5% draw attention.
Murat Erdoğan does not consider the emergence of a new AfD-like party in Turkey likely in the short term, stating that small parties may weaken after a while due to the new political parties regulation and the presidential system.
Impacts on Mainstream Politics and Migration Policies
As political balances in Europe shift to the right, mainstream parties are hardening their migration and security policies in order not to lose voters. This situation leads far-right views to become a part of mainstream politics over time.
Murgul states that the far-right in Western Europe opened up to society with a sophisticated language, while in Turkey, refugees being seen as coreligionists is one of the obstacles preventing a polarization like the one in Europe.
Common Points Between Turkey and Europe
Experts state that in Turkey, the People's Alliance has long filled the populist right and far-right vacuum through the AKP and MHP.
Yalçın Murgul emphasizes that both in Turkey and Europe, people, especially the youth, struggle to dream of a future, and this situation creates a common social psychology.
Social Democratic Opposition and EU Relations
The rise of the far-right in Europe is expected to negatively affect social democratic opposition parties and leaders in Turkey.
Murat Erdoğan states that, in line with the historical foundations of the EU's Turkey policy, European capitals prioritize dealing with the government rather than Turkish society, and in the ensuing process, Turkey may be reduced to a position where cooperation is conducted mostly in the field of security.