Interest pressure weakens in the gold market ahead of the Fed meeting

As the Fed's September 16 meeting approaches, the traditional interest rate pressure on gold prices appears to remain limited. While spot gold finds buyers at the $4,288 level, value losses remaining between 1 percent and 1.6 percent have weakened expectations of sharp sell-offs.

Interest pressure remains limited

While the Fed is expected to raise interest rates at its September 16 meeting, the traditional interest rate pressure on gold prices appears to remain limited.

While spot gold trades at $4,288, silver has dropped to $63.06, with daily losses staying between 1 percent and 1.6 percent.

The link with real interest rates has weakened

Assessments by JPMorgan analysts reveal that the relationship between gold and real interest rates has changed significantly in recent years.

The fact that gold has broken records since 2022 despite the positive real yields on 10-year Treasury bonds indicates that the negative correlation of the past has been broken.

Central banks continue purchases

World Gold Council data reveals the strong trend in central bank demand for gold and the continuation of official sector purchases.

Central banks bought over 1,000 tonnes of gold individually in 2022, 2023, and 2024, while total purchases stood at 863 tonnes in 2025.

Major bank forecasts

Despite strengthening expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates, it is notable that major financial institutions have not revised their gold price forecasts downward.

Goldman Sachs projects $4,900 for the end of 2026, JPMorgan forecasts $4,500 for the fourth quarter, and Bank of America projects $4,360 for the 2026 average.

Recovery from lower levels

After reaching a historic peak by climbing above $5,600 in January, gold experienced a sharp correction in the spring months.

Recovering and rising again from the $4,000 level in the second half of the year, gold maintains its long-term upward trend.