World Trade Organization Report: Free Trade Agreements Could Shrink Global Exports
According to TEPAV Director Bozkurt Aran's analysis based on WTO 2050 simulations, the replacement of the multilateral trading system with bilateral agreements will lead to major economic losses.
Evaluating the World Trade Organization's 2026 report, TEPAV Trade Studies Center Director Bozkurt Aran shared important simulation results regarding the global trading system.
Current State of Global Trade
TEPAV Trade Studies Center Director Bozkurt Aran analyzed the World Trade Organization's 2026 report and emphasized that the global trading system is at a critical threshold.
The main thesis of the report stated that the WTO plays a significant role in the integration of the world economy by reducing customs tariffs and increasing the predictability of trade policy.
Distribution Problem of Gains
The report stated that global trade gains are not distributed equally, with the share of least developed countries in world trade remaining below 1 percent.
Additionally, the fact that manufacturing and service costs in these countries are 50 percent higher than in high-income countries was among the details included in the report.
Alternative Scenarios for the Year 2050
Three separate simulations prepared for world trade up to the year 2050 addressed different economic scenarios and possible outcomes.
It was calculated that if Free Trade Agreements replace the WTO, global exports and gross domestic product will decrease at serious rates.
Contraction and Growth Rates
It was projected that in the event of establishing a network of Free Trade Agreements instead of the WTO, global exports would shrink by 26.9 percent and global GDP by 6.9 percent.
It was reported that if strengthened multilateral cooperation is achieved, global exports would increase by 17.9 percent and global GDP by 2.9 percent.