Brent crude tops $100 amid conflicts and shipment disruptions in Western Asia
The spread of conflicts in Western Asia to energy infrastructure and tanker shipments has heightened supply concerns in global markets, pushing Brent crude oil prices above $100.
Escalating tensions and conflicts in Western Asia affecting energy infrastructure and tanker transportation have raised supply security concerns in global markets to the highest level. With the suspension of the Jizan refinery in Saudi Arabia and declining shipments in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude has surpassed $100.
Rise in Brent Crude Prices
Renewed tensions in Western Asia have caused global oil prices to rise rapidly. The spread of conflicts between the US and Iran to tanker transport and regional energy infrastructure has reinforced concerns that disruptions in supply shipments will be prolonged.
As concerns over supply security grow, Brent crude is trading around $101, while West Texas Intermediate crude is priced at the $96 level. Brent crude has gained approximately 30 percent in value since early August.
Risks of Attacks on Tankers
In addition to military tensions, attacks on tankers carrying crude oil and energy products have also driven the increase in oil prices. The spillover of the conflict between the US and Iran into tanker transportation has heightened risk perception.
Iran announced that it attacked 10 vessels after the US sank five Iranian tankers. The involvement of tankers in the conflict has increased concerns that disruptions in oil shipments from the Persian Gulf will continue.
Declining Vessel Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz
Vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route for global energy trade, is also being closely monitored. According to recent data, only 7 commercial vessels passed through the strait, compared to a 10-day average of 14 vessels.
The decline in commercial activity in the strait—through which approximately 20 percent of global oil and LNG shipments passed before the conflicts began—directly raises concerns regarding global supply security.
Production Halts at Jizan Refinery
Another development compounding supply concerns in the oil market came from Saudi Arabia. Production has halted at the Jizan refinery, located in the country's southwest, which has a crude oil processing capacity of 400,000 barrels per day.
The Saudi Ministry of Energy reported that energy facilities in the south were targeted and some operations were temporarily suspended. Efforts have been initiated to ensure the security of the facilities and assess the damage.
Global Inventories and Expected Supply Deficit
The International Energy Agency's August report pointed to a supply squeeze in the global market. Although global oil supply rose to 101.5 million barrels per day in July, total supply remained 6.3 million barrels below the same period last year.
Total losses in global inventories reached 410 million barrels from the start of the war through the end of July. The IEA expects the global oil market to record a deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026.