Gulf countries seek economic transformation in the shadow of war

The attacks on Iran that began in February have created a serious fracture in the energy-focused economies of Gulf countries. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and threats to energy infrastructure are forcing regional countries to accelerate their economic diversification strategies.

Economic contraction expectations and energy crisis

According to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) April forecasts, the Qatari economy is expected to contract by 8.6 percent and the Bahraini economy by 0.5 percent in 2026 due to the impact of the war. OECD data reveals that global oil supply declined by 12 percent and Gulf countries' oil production by 45 percent during the February-April period.

The disruption of maritime transport in the Strait of Hormuz has directly affected energy shipments. According to Financial Times data, shipments through Hormuz continue to remain more than a third lower compared to pre-war levels. The rise in attacks on commercial vessels in the region from 18 in September to 28 in October indicates that security risks persist.

Investment programs and diversification strategies

Despite economic pressures, countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE continue to implement large-scale investment plans focused on non-oil sectors. Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) has announced a new $925 billion investment program covering areas such as artificial intelligence and mining. The UAE, meanwhile, has committed to a $1.4 trillion investment focused on technology and artificial intelligence with the US.

Assessment: The active use of the East-West Pipeline by Saudi Arabia and the Port of Fujairah by the UAE to reduce the region's dependence on the Strait of Hormuz for energy exports stands out as a strategic measure. However, the duration of the war and the regional security situation will continue to be decisive for the success of these economic diversification goals.