2027 Salary Increase Scenarios in Light of August Inflation Expectations
The salary increases that millions of civil servants and retirees will receive in January 2027 are taking shape with scenarios calculated based on August inflation data and year-end forecasts.
Various salary increase scenarios have begun to be calculated in line with August inflation data and year-end forecasts, which will determine the January 2027 raise for approximately 20 million civil servants and retirees.
The Process for Determining Increase Rates
The 6-month inflation data for the second half of 2026 will determine the increase rate for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees.
As required by the Arbitration Board decision, civil servants and retired civil servants will receive a 5% increase plus an inflation difference for the portion exceeding 7%.
AA Finance Survey Scenario
According to AA Finance survey data, the year-end inflation expectation is projected at 29.49%.
In this scenario, SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees could receive a 9.97% raise, while civil servants could receive a 7.91% raise.
Central Bank Survey Scenario
According to the Central Bank's Market Participants Survey, the year-end inflation expectation was 29.43%.
Following this estimate, raises of 9.91% for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees and 7.86% for civil servants are expected.
Financial Institutions Association Expectation
In the Financial Institutions Association research, the year-end 2026 inflation expectation materialized at the level of 30.47%.
According to this rate, SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees could receive a 10.8% raise, while civil servants could receive an 8.73% raise.