Central Bank interest rate decision and the impacts of oil prices on the stock market
Experts evaluated the decisive role of oil prices in the Central Bank's interest rate policy and potential rate cut schedule.
Onur Can Bal, Deputy Manager of Gedik Investment Investment Consulting, analyzed the effects of the Central Bank's interest rate decision and oil prices on the stock market and potential rate cuts, sharing important expectations.
Evaluation of the Interest Rate Decision
While the Central Bank's decision to keep the policy rate constant at 37 percent was found to be in line with market expectations, the decision text was evaluated as neither hawkish nor dovish.
Inflation and Oil Risk
While the decline in the inflation trend and the weak course of domestic demand stood out as positive messages in the decision text, high energy prices continue to be a risk factor.
Interest Rate Cut Expectations
It was stated that if oil prices fall, 100 basis point cuts are foreseen in October and December, whereas if they remain high, the first step may be limited to 50 basis points.
Reserves and Stock Market Level
While Central Bank reserves reached 184.2 billion dollars, maintaining the 14,250 level in Borsa İstanbul at the weekly close is of technical importance.
Medium-Term Markets
A strengthening upward trend is expected in the stock market if geopolitical risks subside and oil prices recede, while the current account balance posted a surplus of 36 million dollars in July.