Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey September Market Participants Survey Results Announced

The results of the September 2026 Market Participants Survey were published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). While the year-end CPI increase expectation rose from 29.43 percent to 29.61 percent, various changes were recorded in exchange rate, growth, and interest rate expectations.

Inflation Expectations Increased

According to the September 2026 Market Participants Survey announced by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, the year-end Consumer Price Index increase expectation rose from 29.43 percent to 29.61 percent. Participants' 12-month-ahead inflation expectation reached 23.70 percent, while their 24-month-ahead expectation reached 18.32 percent.

Changes in Exchange Rate Expectations

While the current year-end US dollar to Turkish lira exchange rate expectation declined to 51.57, the 12-month-ahead US dollar to TRY exchange rate expectation rose to 58.60. It was observed that markets followed divergent movements in their year-end exchange rate projections.

Updates on Growth and Current Account Deficit

According to the survey results, while the 2026 Gross Domestic Product growth expectation declined, the rate projected for the next year dropped to 3.9 percent. The year-end current account deficit expectation fell to 50.1 billion dollars.

Interest Rates and Projections

While the expectation for the CBRT policy rate at the first meeting was realized as 37 percent, the BIST Repo and Reverse-Repo Market current month-end overnight interest rate expectation dropped to 37 percent.