Central Bank September Market Participants Survey Results
In the Central Bank's September survey, year-end inflation and 12-month-ahead exchange rate expectations increased.
According to the September Market Participants Survey published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, participants' year-end inflation and 12-month-ahead US dollar exchange rate expectations rose.
Inflation Expectations Increased
The results of the September survey, conducted with 67 participants consisting of representatives from the real and financial sectors as well as professionals, have been published. According to the survey, the expectation for September CPI increase, which was 2.08 percent last month, rose to 2.12 percent.
Year-End and Annual Inflation Forecasts
Participants' year-end CPI increase expectation rose from 29.43 percent to 29.61 percent. While the 12-month-ahead CPI expectation increased from 23.69 percent to 23.70 percent, the 24-month-ahead inflation expectation stood at 18.32 percent.
Dollar and Exchange Rate Expectations
Participants' year-end dollar/TL expectation fell from 51.5716 to 51.5716 (Wait: original says 51.6567'den 51.5716'ya geriledi -> declined from 51.6567 to 51.5716). In contrast, the 12-month-ahead dollar/TL expectation, which was 57.4278 in the previous survey, rose to 58.6049 in September.
Current Account Deficit and Growth Forecasts
The year-end current account deficit expectation dropped from 50.2 billion dollars to 50.1 billion dollars. While the Gross Domestic Product growth expectation for the current year fell to 3 percent, the growth expectation for next year was lowered to 3.9 percent.
Policy Rate Projections
Participants' expectations regarding the CBRT policy rate shifted downwards. The 12-month-ahead policy rate expectation declined to 29.22 percent.