Five Different Scenarios Determined for 2027 Minimum Wage Based on Inflation Forecasts
Ahead of the commission convening in December, potential new net minimum wage figures have been calculated according to the year-end inflation expectations of various institutions.
For the minimum wage applied as a net 28,075 TL in 2026, 5 different raise scenarios for 2027 have been calculated in line with year-end inflation forecasts. The exact figure will be decided in December by the Minimum Wage Determination Commission.
Current Inflation Rates
While annual inflation reached 29.73 percent in September, total inflation for the 9-month period was recorded as 24.32 percent. The minimum wage figures applied as 28,075 TL net and 33,030 TL gross throughout the 2026 period are being evaluated in light of these data.
Central Bank Forecast Scenario
In the first calculation scenario, the Central Bank's year-end inflation forecast of 28 percent was taken as a basis, and it was calculated that the net minimum wage would be 35,936 TL if an increase at this rate is made.
Medium-Term Program Scenario
In the second scenario, the year-end inflation forecast of 28.4 percent included in the Medium-Term Program was considered; if this rate is reflected, the net minimum wage will rise to the level of 36,049 TL.
Market Participants Survey
In the third calculation, the year-end inflation expectation of 29.61 percent in the CBRT Market Participants Survey was taken as a basis, and it was calculated that the net minimum wage would reach 36,389 TL.
AA Finance Expectation Survey
The fourth scenario was based on the 29.66 percent forecast in the survey conducted by AA Finance with economists, and it was projected that the net minimum wage would be 36,403 TL with this rate.
Financial Institutions Association Forecast
The fifth and highest calculation was made with the Financial Institutions Association's forecast of 30.39 percent within the scope of the Economic Outlook Index, and it was calculated that the net figure would be 36,608 TL.
Minimum Wage Determination Commission Process
The final figure to be valid next year will be finalized with the decision of the Minimum Wage Determination Commission. The board, consisting of employee, employer, and government parties, is expected to start negotiations in the first week of December.