Four Distinct Scenarios Clarified for January Civil Servant and Retiree Raises
In line with the Medium-Term Program and updated inflation targets, four scenarios have been determined for the raises to be made to civil servant and retiree pensions in January.
With the announcement of the Medium-Term Program and the update of year-end inflation targets, four different scenarios have been put on the table for the raise rates that will be reflected in the salaries of millions of civil servants and retirees in January.
MTP Targets and the Course of Raises
The update of the year-end inflation target to 28.4 percent within the scope of the Medium-Term Program forms the basic framework for the raises to be made in January.
In line with this official rate, the six-month inflation raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will approach the 9 percent band, while the raise rate for civil servants and retired civil servants will exceed the 7 percent level along with the inflation difference.
First Scenario: Central Bank Expectation
According to the Central Bank's year-end inflation forecast of 28 percent, SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive an 8.7 percent raise, while civil servants and retired civil servants will receive a 6.67 percent raise.
In this scenario, the lowest SSK and Bağ-Kur retiree pension will rise to 25,601 liras, the lowest civil servant salary to 74,908 liras, and the lowest retired civil servant pension to 33,633 liras.
Second Scenario: Market Participants Survey
The inflation expectation of 29.43 percent in the Market Participants Survey projects a raise of 9.91 percent for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees and 7.86 percent for civil servants and retired civil servants.
If these rates materialize, the lowest SSK and Bağ-Kur pension will be 25,886 liras, the lowest civil servant salary 75,744 liras, and the lowest retired civil servant pension 34,005 liras.
Third Scenario: AA Finance Expectation Survey
According to the Anadolu Agency Finance Expectation Survey's year-end inflation forecast of 29.49 percent, the retiree raise is calculated as 9.97 percent and the civil servant raise as 7.91 percent.
With this prediction, the lowest SSK and Bağ-Kur retiree pension rises to 25,900 liras, the lowest civil servant salary to 75,779 liras, and the lowest retired civil servant pension to 34,021 liras.
Fourth Scenario: Financial Institutions Association Forecast
While the Financial Institutions Association forecast, which projects the highest raise, is based on a 30.47 percent inflation expectation, it projects a 10.8 percent raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees and an 8.73 percent raise for civil servants.
In this best-case scenario, the lowest SSK and Bağ-Kur retiree pension reaches 26,096 liras, the lowest civil servant salary 76,355 liras, and the retired civil servant pension 34,279 liras.
Exact Figures Will Be Announced in January
While raise rates are expected to vary between an average of 9 and 10 percent according to economic expectations, the final four-month inflation data is awaited for exact figures.
The net raise rates to be reflected on the salaries of millions of civil servants and retirees will be finalized on January 4, 2027.