How the Fund Crisis in Türkiye Affects Markets and Inflation
Following the liquidation of 131 funds in September, which affected hundreds of thousands of investors, the stock market fluctuated, and inflation fell below 30 percent for the first time since November 2021.
The fund crisis, which erupted in September with the liquidation of 131 funds and affected nearly half a million investors, caused sharp losses and stock market volatility in Turkish markets.
Fund Liquidations and Stock Market Movements
The fund crisis, which erupted in September with the liquidation of 131 funds and affected nearly half a million investors, led to sharp losses in Turkish markets. Last week, when news regarding the fund crisis dominated the agenda, Borsa İstanbul's BIST 100 index followed a sales-weighted course and closed down 4.88 percent on a weekly basis at 12,270.18 points.
Stock Market Recovery Process
Following steps such as the liquidation process initiated by the government for companies and funds, and the announcement that interim payments would be made to aggrieved shareholders, Borsa İstanbul completed the first trading day of the new week on Monday, October 5, with an increase of approximately 1.5 percent.
Inflation Data and Expectations
According to the September 2026 inflation data released by TÜİK, consumer prices increased by 1.84 percent compared to the previous month, remaining below expectations, while annual inflation materialized at 29.73 percent, falling below 30 percent for the first time since November 2021. Experts state that this decline is temporary and that year-end inflation will continue to hover around the 30 percent band due to the abolition of the sliding-scale fuel pricing system (eşel mobil) and high oil prices.
Expert Evaluations and Growth
Prof. Dr. Erhan Aslanoğlu, a faculty member in the Economics Department at Istanbul Bilgi University, stated that the weakening in domestic demand and turbulence in capital markets were influential in the decline in September. Aslanoğlu predicted that growth would not be compromised since next year will mark the onset of an election economy period.
Portfolio Losses Based on MKK Data
According to an analysis by Phoenix Consulting founder İris Cibre based on MKK data, the accounts of approximately 364.7 thousand investors in Borsa İstanbul declined to symbolic levels in September, when the fund crisis erupted, and capital outflows and value losses in portfolios exceeding 10 million TL reached 1.94 trillion TL.
Views of Credit Rating Agencies
International credit rating agencies Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings announced that they do not expect the ongoing fund crisis to create an immediate downward pressure or systemic risk on Türkiye's credit rating.
Income Distribution and Social Impact
Prof. Dr. Erinç Yeldan from Kadir Has University pointed out that the annual inflation rate for the richest 10 percent is 32 percent, while it is 51 percent for the poorest 10 percent, emphasizing that people left vulnerable to inflation flocked to the stock market to protect their savings and that the fund crisis has turned into a social crisis.