January 2027 civil servant, retiree, and minimum wage hike projections

Economist Prof. Dr. Hakkı Hakan Yılmaz shared the potential hike scenarios for civil servants, retirees, and the minimum wage in January 2027 with the public, based on Medium-Term Program data and expected increases in energy prices.

Medium-Term Program Inflation Expectations

Inflation expectations will be the direct determinant of the hike rates to be applied to civil servant and retiree pensions in the January 2027 period.

Economist Prof. Dr. Hakkı Hakan Yılmaz stated that according to the Medium-Term Program covering the 2027-2029 period, the inflation forecast for 2026 stands at 28.4 percent.

First Scenario Based on MTP Target

If the inflation forecast materializes at 28.4 percent, workers and BAĞ-KUR retirees will receive a 9 percent raise in January 2027.

Within the framework of the same scenario, it is projected that the raise rate for civil servants and retired civil servants will be 7 percent, and the lowest retiree pension will reach 25,671.68 Turkish Liras.

Scenario of Year-End Inflation Reaching 31 Percent

It was emphasized that year-end inflation realizing at the 31 percent level could be a more realistic scenario.

It was stated that if this forecast comes true, the hike rates will shape up at 9.3 percent for civil servants and retired civil servants, and 11.3 percent for workers and BAĞ-KUR retirees.

Impact of Energy Prices on Inflation

It was stated that the rises in energy prices are a critical factor exerting upward pressure on inflation.

It was conveyed that increases in diesel and gasoline prices affect a wide area from production to distribution processes, and possibilities of electricity and natural gas hikes could also complicate the process.

Minimum Wage Increase Rate Projection

Medium-Term Program targets and experienced welfare losses were considered together.

It was noted that the minimum wage increase rate for 2027 is possible to materialize at a level between 22 percent and 24 percent.