Macroeconomic risk warning regarding the real sector's foreign exchange deficit from Mahfi Eğilmez
Stating that the net foreign exchange deficit of real sector companies has reached high levels, economist Mahfi Eğilmez emphasized that this situation could turn into a risk for the economy as a whole.
Economist Mahfi Eğilmez stated, based on data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey for July 2026, that the net foreign exchange deficit of real sector companies has reached 210.8 billion dollars and that this situation may constitute a macroeconomic risk.
Foreign Exchange Deficit and Risk Mechanism
Economist Mahfi Eğilmez made evaluations regarding the foreign exchange open positions of companies in an article on his personal blog. He stated that carrying foreign currency-denominated debt does not pose a risk by itself, and that the actual risk arises when foreign currency liabilities exceed foreign currency revenues.
Stating that if a company has 30 million dollars in foreign exchange revenues against 100 million dollars in foreign exchange debt, a net foreign exchange deficit of 70 million dollars is created, Eğilmez conveyed that when the exchange rate rises, the Turkish Lira equivalent of the debt will increase and balance sheets will be adversely affected.
Macroeconomic Risk Dimension
He stated that the foreign exchange risk, which might be manageable for a single company, can turn into a macroeconomic risk across the entire economy if many companies carry open positions at the same time.
He pointed out that exchange rate increases can deteriorate company balance sheets, increase credit risk, and create negative effects on investments and employment.
Experience of the 2001 Crisis
Reminding that Turkey experienced the effects of a similar mechanism during the 2001 crisis, Eğilmez emphasized that the foreign exchange open position of the banking sector was a significant vulnerability factor in the 2001 crisis.
He reported that according to BRSA data, the foreign exchange position deficit of banks stood at 15.2 billion dollars as of February 19, 2001, and that the sharp depreciation experienced following the transition to the floating exchange rate system negatively affected balance sheets.
Current Data and Sectoral Situation
He stated that while the banking system has a different structure today than in the 2001 period, this time the foreign exchange open positions of real sector companies have reached a striking level.
According to CBRT data for July 2026, he noted that real sector firms had 401.2 billion dollars in foreign exchange liabilities against 190.4 billion dollars in foreign exchange assets, and the net foreign exchange position deficit was at the level of 210.8 billion dollars.
Necessity of Comprehensive Evaluation
Eğilmez emphasized that the 210.8 billion dollar net deficit should not be evaluated as a crisis indicator by itself.
Expressing that companies' foreign exchange revenues, export performances, debt maturities, and hedging instruments must be handled together, he stated that the foreign exchange deficit of the real sector is an indicator that must be closely monitored.