Medium-Term Program announced: 2026 inflation forecast set at 28.4 percent

Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, together with Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek and other officials at the Presidential Complex, announced the Medium-Term Program covering the 2027-2029 period. Under the new program, the 2026 inflation forecast was raised to 28.4 percent while the growth forecast was updated to 3.3 percent.

Introduction of the Medium-Term Program

Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz announced the Medium-Term Program covering the 2027-2029 period to the public at a meeting held at the Presidential Complex. The meeting was attended by Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek, Presidential Secretary General Hakkı Susmaz, Head of Strategy and Budget İbrahim Şenel, and Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan.

Global Economic Developments and Risks

Yılmaz emphasized that the global economy is going through a period where predictability is decreasing and risks have reached historical levels. Attention was drawn to the negative impacts of the war in their region on energy, commodities, global trade, and inflation.

Growth and Inflation Targets

According to the updated data, the 2026 growth forecast was set at 3.3 percent, while the industrial growth forecast dropped to 2.3 percent. The year-end inflation forecast was revised upward, rising to 28.4 percent.

Foreign Trade and Energy Figures

It was stated that the energy import forecast rose to 71 billion dollars, while the foreign trade deficit forecast was announced as 105 billion dollars. The expectation for the ratio of the current account deficit to national income was updated to 2.6 percent.

Financial Indicators and Reserves

It was stated that confidence in the Turkish lira has increased thanks to the implemented policies. It was noted that the share of Turkish lira deposits in total deposits rose to 61.5 percent, gross reserves reached 188.2 billion dollars, and the risk premium fell below 220.